Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
D2 0xd2be…78c2 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$3,392 (+16%) realized +$3,616 · open −$224
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%29W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$813
14 days−$651
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$3,374
other 46% −$431
world 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.1% -26.8% 48% 48% -18.7%
≤30d 25 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 56% -7.0%
≤90d 40 +23.7% +11.9% 72% 65% +4.5%
all 41 +23.1% +11.4% 71% 63% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 63% +4.5%
10% +0.7% 61% -5.5%
15% -9.0% 61% -14.6%
20% -17.9% 44% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$293 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized+$3,616
Unrealized−$224
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses29 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage112d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 92¢ $300 $334 +$34 (+11%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $288 $330 +$42 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 49¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $506 +$371 +73%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $367 +$183 +50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -98%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 18 $198 +$114 +58%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $228 +$272 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $306 +$334 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $603 +$222 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Vitality make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $487 −$487 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 15 $431 −$431 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $305 −$290 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$171 +56%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,385 +$582 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $307 +$243 +79%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $294 +$206 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $303 +$162 +53%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 01 $183 +$67 +36%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $287 +$314 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner May 22 $508 +$535 +106%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 21 $305 +$514 +168%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $1,010 +$362 +36%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $233 +$339 +146%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Grou May 19 $303 +$136 +45%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 18 $285 +$215 +75%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 18 $13 +$21 +154%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 16 $348 +$225 +65%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group May 16 $43 +$21 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 15 $163 +$101 +62%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) May 12 $385 +$345 +90%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $726 +$122 +17%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,575 +$145 +9%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 20 $2,580 +$90 +4%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 19 $3,174 +$138 +4%
StarCraft II: Clem vs Reynor - Map 1 Winner Feb 28 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $305 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $506 30h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $508 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $367 45h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 46h
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 45¢ $228 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $301 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $306 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports $15 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $305 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $269 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $154 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $333 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $326 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $334 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $261 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $1,082 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 69¢ $303 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $305 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $307 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $294 6d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $68 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $54 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.49 · official $668.54 (match) · 191 history records