Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bf…6110 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
other 31% $0
politics 15% +$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 5% $0
sports 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 10 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -9.2% -17.8% 30% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage446d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $39 −$3 -9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $38 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $32 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 28 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will 'DAN DA DAN' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $3 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Trailer 2 get between 90m and 100m views in f May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $21 −$1 -3%
Will X buy TikTok? May 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $1 $0 +12%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $7 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $8 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $39 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $36 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $35 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $35 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $35 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $38 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $17 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $18 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $32 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.20 · official $3.20 (match) · 138 history records