Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bf…231f crypto 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,140 (+6%) realized +$1,157 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%278W / 358L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$40
other 33% +$141
sports 13% +$587
world 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +123.3% +102.0% 100% 100% +102.0%
≤30d 3 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 33% -90.7%
≤90d 149 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 40% -10.3%
all 636 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 44% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -5.2%
10% -21.9% 44% -14.3%
15% -29.5% 43% -22.5%
20% -36.4% 43% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$1,157
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses278 / 358
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)636 / 638
History coverage158d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $138 −$13 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $47 $42 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$19 +123%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $299 −$295 -99%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $149 +$157 +105%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $181 −$178 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 19 $15 −$14 -95%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $60 +$87 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 18 $25 +$24 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 18 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 18 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 18 $31 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $25 +$56 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $20 +$29 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $35 +$59 +169%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5) Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 11 $12 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 11 $15 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 11 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 10 $30 +$35 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 10 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $35 +$44 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 10 $6 +$15 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 10 $15 +$27 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 09 $25 +$26 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $155 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $48 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 26d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 24¢ $20 26d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 48d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 33¢ $58 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 84¢ $307 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.20 · official $180.20 (match) · 1407 history records