Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2bf…f980 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,306 (-12%) realized −$1,341 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,312
7 days−$1,410
14 days−$1,410
30 days−$1,404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$427
crypto 24% −$201
sports 16% −$951
economics 3% −$65
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -43.2% -48.6% 29% 24% -37.4%
≤30d 18 -40.7% -46.4% 33% 22% -33.4%
≤90d 24 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 21% -30.7%
all 24 -37.0% -43.0% 33% 21% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 21% -30.7%
10% -48.4% 17% -37.3%
15% -53.4% 8% -43.3%
20% -58.0% 0% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$186 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$2,415
Realized−$1,341
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions30
Markets (closed)24 / 54
History coverage66d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $608 $664 +$56 (+9%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $290 $288 −$2 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $309 $275 −$34 (-11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 80¢ 64¢ $331 $265 −$65 (-20%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $172 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $165 $173 +$8 (+5%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 5¢ 20¢ $25 $102 +$77 (+308%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $70 $86 +$16 (+23%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 51¢ 58¢ $51 $58 +$7 (+13%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $47 $21 −$26 (-56%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+14%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 30¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+49%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $110 +$52 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $323 −$318 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $509 +$66 +13%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $228 −$28 -12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $883 −$669 -76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $361 +$81 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,009 +$310 +31%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $272 −$266 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $328 −$324 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 −$101 -50%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 20 $694 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 03 $401 +$30 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 24 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $939 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 12 $319 −$67 -21%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $752 −$241 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 1m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 2m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 3m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 4m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 5m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 5m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 7m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 7m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 8m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 9m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 11m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 11m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 11m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 12m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 12m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 12m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 13m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 14m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 14m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 20m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 29m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 29m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 36m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 36m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 38m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 39m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,414.76 · official $2,414.76 (match) · 523 history records