Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2c3…b844 crypto 168 markets active 16h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+25%) realized +$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%81W / 87L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$175
14 days+$175
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$177
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% +8.3%
≤30d 168 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% +8.3%
≤90d 168 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% +8.3%
all 168 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 38% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 38% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 30% -2.1%
15% -23.8% 27% -11.5%
20% -31.3% 21% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses81 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 404 history records