Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2c4…304c crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$408 (+1%) realized +$425 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%108W / 17L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$156
14 days+$155
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$235
world 7% +$1
sports 3% +$29
other 1% +$111
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +92.7% +74.4% 70% 70% +5.1%
≤30d 40 +18.8% +7.5% 82% 32% -8.1%
≤90d 103 +10.2% -0.3% 89% 23% -8.0%
all 125 +8.8% -1.5% 86% 20% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 20% -8.5%
10% -10.9% 14% -17.2%
15% -19.6% 12% -25.2%
20% -27.4% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$425
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses108 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)125 / 136
History coverage110d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$9 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $299 −$23 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $390 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $5 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 27 $91 −$90 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 26 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 25 $41 +$9 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $205 +$3 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $16 +$4 +24%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 22 $502 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $761 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $7 +$13 +198%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 12? May 12 $496 +$14 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $151 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $54 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $152 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $141 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $1 8d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 92¢ $276 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 84¢ $4 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $91 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $390 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.45 · official $460.45 (match) · 299 history records