Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd2c5…a320 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$766 (+25%) realized +$777 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR79%break-even

Win rate86%12W / 2L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$177per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$160

7 days+$811

14 days+$823

30 days+$823

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +79%

net ROI/market (all)+34.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+52.0%	+37.5%	85%	85%	+24.4%
≤30d	14	+48.4%	+34.3%	86%	79%	+19.1%
≤90d	14	+48.4%	+34.3%	86%	79%	+19.1%
all	14	+48.4%	+34.3%	86%	79%	+19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.3%	79%	+19.1%
10%	+21.4%	71%	+7.7%
15%	+9.7%	71%	-2.7%
20%	-1.0%	50%	-12.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +62% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$99 vs −$181 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$392

Realized+$777

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses12 / 2

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage10d

Avg bet$177

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	No	61¢	64¢	$163	$170	+$7 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	No	50¢	48¢	$140	$136	−$4 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	No	50¢	44¢	$100	$87	−$13 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$99	+$51	+52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$90	+$80	+90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$616	+$234	+38%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$98	+$156	+160%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$298	−$296	-99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$67	−$65	-98%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$4	+$4	+105%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$19	+$9	+50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$280	+$420	+150%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$67	+$53	+79%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$108	+$105	+97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$400	+$50	+12%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$23	+$10	+42%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$438	+$12	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	65¢	$99	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	61¢	$143	14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	61¢	$20	14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	72¢	$616	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$35	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$143	29h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$43	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	45¢	$45	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	57¢	$74	30h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5	BUY Under	38¢	$67	40h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	34¢	$55	40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$280	2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	55¢	$67	3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$100	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$87	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$42	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	50¢	$7	3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$108	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$400	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	52¢	$90	5d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	97¢	$438	9d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	66¢	$19	9d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	48¢	$4	9d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$23	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.34 · official $392.35 (match) · 40 history records