Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd2ca…ac6a other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$290 (-27%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$10
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$326
sports 28% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 20% -10.7%
≤30d 10 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 20% -30.1%
≤90d 10 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 20% -30.1%
all 10 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 20% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 20% -30.1%
10% -35.9% 20% -36.8%
15% -42.1% 20% -42.9%
20% -47.8% 10% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$69 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $177 −$10 -6%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $98 +$79 +81%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $204 +$5 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $195 +$10 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 −$22 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $199 −$194 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $167 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $177 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 55¢ $93 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 50¢ $84 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $98 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 31¢ $209 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $206 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 29¢ $204 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 27¢ $97 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $26 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $199 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records