Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ca…cf9f sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$258 (-14%) realized −$444 · open +$186
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$135
crypto 29% −$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -69.3% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤30d 5 -69.3% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤90d 5 -69.3% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.8%
all 5 -69.3% -72.2% 20% 20% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.2% 20% -48.8%
10% ← realistic here -74.9% 20% -53.7%
15% -77.3% 20% -58.2%
20% -79.5% 0% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$195 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$186
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFP Gaming 45¢ 62¢ $498 $683 +$186 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$207 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $493 +$214 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $295 −$264 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 38¢ $15 56m
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 46¢ $383 58m
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 46¢ $5 58m
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 46¢ $28 58m
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 42¢ $70 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.49 · official $584.27 · 48 history records