Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2cb…7729 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$708 (-11%) realized −$659 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$92
14 days−$727
30 days−$707
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$893
other 21% −$2
politics 16% +$129
tech 10% +$26
culture 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.7% -6.1% 77% 15% -6.4%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 28% -21.6%
≤90d 33 +3.2% -6.7% 76% 33% -21.2%
all 33 +3.2% -6.7% 76% 33% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 33% -21.2%
10% -15.6% 12% -28.8%
15% -23.7% 6% -35.7%
20% -31.2% 3% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$128 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$1,121
Realized−$659
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage64d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? No 83¢ 58¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $572 +$23 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $332 +$21 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $210 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $301 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $231 +$14 +6%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $151 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 20 $118 +$3 +3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $300 +$2 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 17 $200 +$35 +17%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 10 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 09 $398 +$33 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $578 −$578 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $310 +$93 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $444 −$426 -96%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +17%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 07 $301 +$10 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $269 +$51 +19%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 02 $52 −$6 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$22 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Apr 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $10 +$4 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 26 $10 +$9 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $500 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $595 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $353 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 11¢ $52 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $210 30h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $299 30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $245 30h
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $149 30h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $122 30h
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 30h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $11 30h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 5¢ $52 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $100 30h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $196 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $302 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $131 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $130 3d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 82¢ $235 3d
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $47 11d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $203 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $200 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $403 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $431 13d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $431 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 13d
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,120.87 · official $1,120.87 (match) · 139 history records