Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd2cb…8896
sports · 70 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$102 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$126 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$76
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)62 / 70
History coverage34d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 8 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$4
14 days+$16
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $8 $12 +$5 (+61%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 63¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 43¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 69¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 45¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 51¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Over 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $41 −$5 -13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$9 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$10 -52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$5 -45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $20 −$5 -26%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $20 +$13 +65%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $10 +$52 +510%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$34 +166%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$46 +226%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$12 +118%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 22 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $50 −$3 -5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 20 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $11 −$10 -87%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $16 −$15 -94%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 18 $21 +$3 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 17 $20 −$2 -8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $20 +$8 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $30 −$4 -14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $20 −$19 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$81
other 28% −$20
crypto 6% −$16
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 16h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $13 19h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $10 20h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 42h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $10 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $19 42h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 21¢ $2 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 42h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $2 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 46h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Anyones Legend 11¢ $6 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 19¢ $10 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 7d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +24.9% +13.0% 29% 21% -11.1%
≤30d 51 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 62 -9.8% -18.4% 32% 27% -20.9%
all 62 -9.8% -18.4% 32% 27% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 27% -20.9%
10% -26.2% 21% -28.5%
15% -33.3% 18% -35.4%
20% -39.9% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.31 · official $76.32 (match) · 148 history records