Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2cb…43ee world 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$160 (-26%) realized −$154 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$97
other 12% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤30d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 33% -28.4%
≤90d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 33% -28.4%
all 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 33% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 33% -28.4%
10% -19.5% 33% -35.2%
15% -27.2% 33% -41.5%
20% -34.4% 33% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$136 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 19¢ 22¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+18%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$195 +195%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.60 · official $239.60 (match) · 12 history records