Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd2cf…71d8 crypto 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$521 (-12%) realized −$521 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%152W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$572
sports 4% +$21
other 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -39.4% -45.2% 38% 25% -11.5%
≤30d 16 -39.4% -45.2% 38% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 16 -39.4% -45.2% 38% 25% -11.5%
all 359 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 42% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 42% -22.0%
10% -28.9% 41% -29.4%
15% -35.7% 39% -36.2%
20% -42.0% 38% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses152 / 207
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)359 / 362
History coverage116d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 69¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$5 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 +$2 +10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$8 +76%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $37 +$9 +23%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 10 $7 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 10 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 10 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March? Mar 09 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 09 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$2 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 09 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 09 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $17 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $17 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 80¢ $16 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 69¢ $25 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $11 11h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $11 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $23 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $3 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $29 40h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 2d
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.76 · official $58.76 (match) · 1203 history records