Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2d0…c774 world 204 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%5W / 197L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$9
other 20% −$12
world 19% +$134
economics 18% −$7
sports 9% −$3
crypto 6% −$4
finance 3% −$2
tech 1% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.0% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 8 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 46 +83.6% +66.1% 9% 4% -9.8%
all 202 +17.5% +6.3% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -3.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -13.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -21.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$0 · ×95.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses5 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)202 / 204
History coverage122d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 62¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $52 −$2 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $69 −$3 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $189 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $103 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 01 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $62 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $3 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $259 −$1 -0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $363 +$146 +40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $94 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $589 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $96 +$7 +7%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $47 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 21 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 19 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 59¢ $50 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $52 5d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 65¢ $56 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 67¢ $58 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL No 31¢ $10 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 32¢ $11 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $27 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 61¢ $43 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $0.00 · 1766 history records