Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2d4…7686 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-9%) realized −$48 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$58
sports 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.0% -32.2% 33% 33% -28.9%
≤30d 7 -19.5% -27.1% 43% 43% -21.6%
≤90d 34 -8.2% -16.9% 35% 21% -17.0%
all 34 -8.2% -16.9% 35% 21% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 21% -17.0%
10% -24.9% 0% -24.9%
15% -32.1% 0% -32.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage58d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $19 $14 −$4 (-23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 −$12 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $15 −$10 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $15 −$2 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $25 −$5 -20%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $25 −$3 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 26 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $11 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $25 −$1 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 23 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $25 −$2 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $25 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $15 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $25 −$5 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $25 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 21 $20 −$3 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $25 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $0 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.94 · official $18.79 (match) · 1127 history records