Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D2 0xd2d8…6e1f sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,324 (+34%) realized +$1,332 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$389
other 25% +$60
crypto 1% +$768
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 37% 37% +21.0%
≤30d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 37% 37% +21.0%
≤90d 35 +45.9% +32.0% 37% 37% +21.0%
all 35 +45.9% +32.0% 37% 37% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 37% +21.0%
10% +19.4% 37% +9.4%
15% +7.8% 34% -1.2%
20% -2.7% 31% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$78 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$1,332
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $52 +$448 +864%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $52 +$226 +437%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 +$152 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$95 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$84 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 +$294 +285%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $52 +$768 +1479%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $103 +$120 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $410 +$431 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $103 +$141 +137%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $204 +$104 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$37 +72%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $73 −$54 -75%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $52 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $102 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $102 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $52 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $205 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $204 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $103 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 21¢ $60 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 57¢ $331 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 17¢ $103 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 67¢ $204 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 13¢ $104 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 39¢ $103 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $305 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $103 3d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $410 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.05 · official $192.05 (match) · 71 history records