Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2db…03f1 crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-14%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$11
other 49% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -59.3% -63.2% 33% 33% -38.0%
≤30d 3 -59.3% -63.2% 33% 33% -38.0%
≤90d 3 -59.3% -63.2% 33% 33% -38.0%
all 3 -59.3% -63.2% 33% 33% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 33% -38.0%
10% -66.7% 0% -43.9%
15% -69.9% 0% -49.3%
20% -72.9% 0% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.05 · official $29.05 (match) · 8 history records