Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2dd…2297 sports 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$993 (+11%) realized +$968 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%95W / 79L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days+$337
14 days+$48
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$154
other 35% +$773
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +70.8% +54.5% 73% 73% +27.3%
≤30d 28 +47.9% +33.8% 68% 68% +14.1%
≤90d 76 +17.2% +6.1% 57% 57% +11.0%
all 174 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 53% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 53% +0.2%
10% -14.8% 52% -9.4%
15% -23.0% 47% -18.1%
20% -30.6% 36% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$40 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$968
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses95 / 79
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 178
History coverage110d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $133 $78 −$55 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $152 +$114 +75%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$113 +550%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$29 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $70 +$15 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 09 $20 +$31 +152%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 +$32 +105%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 09 $31 +$55 +180%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 09 $41 +$59 +146%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $263 +$385 +147%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Madrid Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Arthur Fils Apr 28 $40 +$13 +32%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 27 $40 +$20 +50%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $70 +$102 +146%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Apr 22 $30 +$27 +88%
Spread: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) Apr 16 $40 +$55 +138%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 16 $50 +$57 +114%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $100 +$40 +40%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Apr 16 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $40 +$56 +140%
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca Apr 15 $70 +$26 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$36 +36%
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY 55¢ $71 27h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $51 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $101 27h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY 56¢ $152 3d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $70 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $50 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $71 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 51¢ $101 10d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $31 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 10d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $31 24d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $31 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $183 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $61 56d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 39¢ $20 56d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 46¢ $20 56d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 56d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.94 · official $257.94 (match) · 486 history records