Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e0…559a sports 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$762 (-5%) realized −$762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%92W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$3
14 days−$125
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$607
other 9% −$107
crypto 3% −$62
finance 0% −$10
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$12
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -1.9% -11.3% 69% 58% -9.1%
≤30d 133 -21.4% -28.9% 26% 21% -26.9%
≤90d 187 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 27% -26.0%
all 229 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 25% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 25% -14.5%
10% -28.4% 22% -22.7%
15% -35.3% 21% -30.2%
20% -41.6% 15% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses92 / 137
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)229 / 237
History coverage147d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $10 +$5 +53%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $25 −$8 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 11m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 14m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 14m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 17m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland SELL Sri Lanka 99¢ $28 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 71¢ $20 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 97¢ $24 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 81¢ $20 7h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $19 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 62¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 96¢ $15 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 62¢ $10 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 64¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 91¢ $20 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 50¢ $15 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 88¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.79 · official $29.79 (match) · 576 history records