Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e0…4983 sports 863 markets active 2h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$697 (-1%) realized −$697 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%316W / 547L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$75
14 days+$14
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,579
other 12% +$1,723
world 0% −$13
politics 0% −$18
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.3% -13.4% 30% 28% -1.5%
≤30d 216 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 35% -11.8%
≤90d 433 -6.1% -15.0% 38% 34% -7.7%
all 863 -10.2% -18.7% 37% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 33% -10.9%
10% -26.5% 31% -19.4%
15% -33.6% 29% -27.2%
20% -40.1% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$37 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses316 / 547
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)863 / 863
History coverage406d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 863 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$45 +549%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $268 +$23 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $114 −$112 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $51 +$64 +126%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $47 +$221 +469%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 +$34 +259%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$12 -49%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $49 +$36 +74%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $66 −$44 -66%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $53 −$7 -13%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $21 +$33 +156%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $39 +$30 +77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $15 −$1 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $15 −$10 -63%
Eva Marie Desvignes vs. Jeong Moon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $18 +$17 +92%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $40 −$31 -79%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -97%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$53 +513%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 23 $10 −$8 -77%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Plovdiv: Thomas Fancutt vs Mathys Erhard Jun 23 $42 −$41 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Sapporo: Natsuho Arakawa vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $7 −$4 -60%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -86%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 +$23 +230%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $60 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $220 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $120 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 49¢ $114 5h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 89¢ $115 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $51 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 95¢ $268 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 15¢ $21 7h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 19¢ $17 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 82¢ $48 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 8h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 15¢ $9 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $85 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $49 10h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 53¢ $15 27h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 99¢ $15 27h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 62¢ $10 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 26¢ $37 28h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 43¢ $46 28h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $53 28h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 89¢ $54 28h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 34¢ $21 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 36¢ $21 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1919 history records