Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e2…d4fe sports 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$5
other 22% −$5
politics 22% −$4
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
finance 1% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 67 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 186 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 172
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage163d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $359 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $79 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 02 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 02 $41 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $34 1h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 12d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 12d
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL No 98¢ $16 26d
Will Victoria Mboko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $16 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $23 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $23 34d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $29 66d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $29 66d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $31 66d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $31 66d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $26 66d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $26 66d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $32 67d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $32 67d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $32 67d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 96¢ $23 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 95¢ $23 67d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $24 67d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $24 67d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $28 67d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $28 68d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $27 68d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 68d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $22 68d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $22 68d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $29 68d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $29 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 97¢ $33 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.58 (match) · 737 history records