Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2e5…925f other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-5%) realized −$147 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%45W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$521
politics 35% +$254
sports 14% +$3
culture 5% +$24
economics 4% +$139
crypto 2% −$36
weather 1% +$20
world 1% −$24
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +215.0% +185.0% 100% 100% +185.0%
≤30d 2 +147.7% +124.1% 100% 100% +101.4%
≤90d 5 +206.9% +177.7% 100% 100% +160.8%
all 114 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 39% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -14.3%
10% -21.0% 38% -22.5%
15% -28.6% 37% -29.9%
20% -35.6% 30% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +188% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$22 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses45 / 69
Open positions6
Markets (closed)114 / 120
History coverage699d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 33¢ 60¢ $77 $139 +$62 (+80%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $15 +$33 +215%
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary Jun 18 $33 +$27 +80%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 05 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 05 $15 +$50 +335%
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the May 05 $15 +$50 +335%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by March 31? Feb 20 $25 +$14 +56%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25? Feb 20 $15 +$56 +376%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? Feb 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $25 +$123 +491%
Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 27 $48 +$28 +59%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 27 $29 +$14 +48%
Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 27 $60 +$16 +27%
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 27 $10 +$70 +704%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Lions (-2.5) Nov 28 $5 +$6 +117%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 28 $7 +$10 +144%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $20 +$24 +121%
Will Trump not sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill by November 29? Nov 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $20 +$60 +300%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $20 +$33 +163%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $7 −$7 -89%
Will the government shutdown end November 14? Nov 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $15 +$35 +236%
Browns vs. Jets Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025? Nov 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? Nov 05 $20 +$56 +279%
Chargers vs. Raiders Nov 04 $25 +$15 +59%
Colorado vs. Houston Sep 15 $15 +$8 +54%
Spread: Vikings (-3.5) Sep 15 $15 +$12 +82%
Patriots vs. Dolphins Sep 15 $15 +$18 +117%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Sep 15 $20 +$17 +85%
Broncos vs. Colts Sep 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bills vs. Jets: O/U 47.5 Sep 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Bengals (-3.5) Sep 12 $10 −$10 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 31¢ $15 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 25d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $18 52d
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary BUY Yes 56¢ $28 52d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 40¢ $10 103d
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary BUY Yes 48¢ $5 103d
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 22¢ $10 103d
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the BUY Yes 23¢ $15 103d
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards BUY Yes 61¢ $15 103d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A BUY Yes 14¢ $10 103d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 103d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes $10 103d
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes $5 121d
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes $10 121d
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes $5 121d
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 123d
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 123d
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 126d
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 126d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 31¢ $50 128d
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by March 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 128d
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 128d
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? BUY No 92¢ $75 128d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $148 128d
Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? SELL No 100¢ $76 151d
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL No 100¢ $43 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.54 · official $273.54 (match) · 294 history records