Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd2e5…c638 sports 1402 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-5%) realized −$244 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%496W / 903L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$58
14 days−$80
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$373
other 39% −$16
crypto 11% −$9
world 4% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -41.6% -47.2% 13% 13% -51.8%
≤30d 750 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 27% -22.8%
≤90d 1399 -10.6% -19.2% 35% 32% -15.6%
all 1399 -10.6% -19.2% 35% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 32% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 28% -23.6%
15% -34.0% 25% -31.0%
20% -40.4% 21% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses496 / 903
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1399 / 1402
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 27¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 42¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -27%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$3 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$9 +900%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -80%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $4 −$3 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 +$4 +175%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$9 +899%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $0 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $2 4h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records