Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2ea…d0a0 other 13 markets active 20h ago coverage 451d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-27%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$4
politics 22% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -53.9%
≤30d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -53.9%
≤90d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -53.9%
all 9 -55.2% -59.5% 22% 22% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 22% -47.9%
10% -63.4% 22% -52.9%
15% -66.9% 22% -57.4%
20% -70.1% 11% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage451d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $2 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-15? Apr 15 $2 +$3 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.27 · official $9.27 (match) · 25 history records