Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd2ee…2c9e crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate60%93W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$8
other 29% −$9
politics 14% −$2
world 5% +$4
sports 3% +$15
tech 3% +$8
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.0% +2.3% 100% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 9 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 11% -8.9%
≤90d 99 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 9% -9.3%
all 155 -9.1% -17.8% 60% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -9.4%
10% -25.6% 8% -18.1%
15% -32.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -39.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses93 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage121d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 97¢ $152 $148 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $123 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 30 $135 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $147 $0 +0%
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Frederico Ferreira Silva May 26 $3 +$4 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $144 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading o May 23 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $147 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Lucrezia Stefanin May 21 $7 +$4 +60%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 20? May 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 20 $142 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $130 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $232 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Veronika Kudermetova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of May 11 May 16 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $136 +$1 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $128 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 13? May 14 $130 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? May 12 $131 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 10? May 11 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $132 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $132 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on May 7? May 08 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $130 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $130 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $130 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 29 $130 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 27 $3 +$4 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 26? Apr 26 $3 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $107 26d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY RUSTEC 60¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 26d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $148 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $147 31d
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta BUY Massimo Giunta 35¢ $2 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $142 32d
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 37¢ $3 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $145 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 33d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 37¢ $3 33d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading o BUY No 100¢ $147 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $147 36d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $135 36d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Lucrezia Stefanin BUY Lucia Bronzetti 62¢ $7 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $142 38d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $130 38d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $130 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $136 39d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $4 39d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 39d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 39d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $132 39d
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $132 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.59 · official $147.59 (match) · 292 history records