Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ef…1829 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,603 (-37%) realized −$7,603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,465per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$7,396
14 days−$8,396
30 days−$8,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$7,261
other 37% −$1,134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -42.1% -47.6% 38% 38% -44.1%
≤30d 14 -46.3% -51.4% 36% 36% -46.8%
≤90d 14 -46.3% -51.4% 36% 36% -46.8%
all 14 -46.3% -51.4% 36% 36% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 36% -46.8%
10% -56.0% 36% -51.9%
15% -60.3% 21% -56.6%
20% -64.2% 14% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$727 vs −$1,337 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,465
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $190 −$186 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 −$754 -75%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $509 +$141 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,515 +$610 +24%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,631 −$1,600 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,871 −$3,852 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,149 −$1,140 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2,040 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,023 +$1,222 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $190 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $514 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $256 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $2,020 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $649 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $509 33h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $2,515 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,631 3d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $3,871 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,012 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1,149 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $2,040 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $3,245 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $2,023 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records