Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f1…885d sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$499 (-13%) realized −$499 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$515
7 days−$603
14 days−$414
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$523
sports 40% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.9% -22.1% 38% 36% -27.8%
≤30d 49 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 39% -22.9%
≤90d 49 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 39% -22.9%
all 49 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 39% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 39% -22.9%
10% -27.7% 33% -30.3%
15% -34.7% 29% -37.0%
20% -41.1% 18% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$47 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage27d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $54 −$32 -59%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 26 $111 −$110 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $101 −$76 -75%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 26 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $41 +$7 +17%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $61 +$32 +52%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $61 +$45 +75%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $61 −$35 -57%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $101 −$4 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $58 −$10 -17%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 −$38 -38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$58 -57%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $41 −$20 -48%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $71 −$7 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$47 +46%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $61 −$22 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$52 +86%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $61 +$49 +81%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$23 -45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $75 +$15 +20%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $91 +$15 +16%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$25 -49%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$59 -58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$32 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$5 -22%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $202 −$12 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $161 +$81 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$45 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 −$79 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 18¢ $22 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 96¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 91¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 93¢ $105 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $92 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $48 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $1 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $61 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $0 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $97 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $61 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $61 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $48 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $58 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $63 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $43 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $21 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $41 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $64 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $71 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $148 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records