Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f2…6cec world 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$127 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$33
14 days−$36
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$88
other 20% +$21
world 17% +$3
politics 6% −$13
finance 1% −$14
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 168 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 224 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 31% -19.3%
all 257 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 30% -11.2%
10% -21.8% 21% -19.7%
15% -29.4% 18% -27.5%
20% -36.3% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 146
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions62
Markets (closed)257 / 319
History coverage537d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $34 $42 +$8 (+24%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 58¢ $46 $39 −$7 (-16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 17¢ 56¢ $6 $19 +$13 (+228%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 84¢ $14 $18 +$5 (+34%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 79¢ 91¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 74¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 28¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 15¢ 55¢ $3 $12 +$8 (+267%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 28¢ 66¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+140%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+29%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -47%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +34%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +365%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$6 -78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +47%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$12 +195%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 2h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $1 2h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $2 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $0 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1 8h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 8h
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 12h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 12h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 12h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 18h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.31 · official $359.69 (match) · 1254 history records