Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f2…00e8 crypto 978 markets active 6d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (170 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,170 (+42%) realized +$10,170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate81%788W / 188L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day169.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (170 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.5% -8.2% 77% 20% -11.3%
≤30d 976 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 16% -9.2%
≤90d 976 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 16% -9.2%
all 976 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 16% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -23.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -31.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$10,170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses788 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)976 / 978
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day169.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 976 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$11 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $55 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$8 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.82 · official $50.00 (match) · 3500 history records