Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2f3…03fa crypto 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$554 (+2%) realized +$555 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%86W / 80L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$113
14 days−$113
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$513
sports 19% +$80
other 7% −$526
politics 2% −$26
culture 1% +$1,268
tech 1% −$73
finance 0% +$235
world 0% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.8% +8.4% 38% 38% -32.2%
≤30d 9 +6.5% -3.6% 33% 33% -39.5%
≤90d 9 +6.5% -3.6% 33% 33% -39.5%
all 166 +3.2% -6.7% 52% 47% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 47% -8.6%
10% -15.6% 36% -17.4%
15% -23.7% 24% -25.4%
20% -31.2% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$92 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$555
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses86 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)166 / 170
History coverage278d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$8 -32%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 29 $84 −$5 -6%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $102 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3AM ET Mar 28 $113 +$37 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-05? Mar 28 $119 −$119 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 28 $290 +$6 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-01? Mar 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 28 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 28 $1,906 −$1,906 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 25 $1,041 −$554 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 01 $35 −$35 -100%
ODi Series South Africa vs Pakistan, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Mar 01 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12PM ET Feb 21 $638 −$50 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 21 $533 +$105 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9AM ET Feb 21 $529 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 21 $195 +$334 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$95 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $188 −$39 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET Feb 04 $131 +$31 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 04 $137 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3PM ET Feb 04 $545 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 04 $336 −$70 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3AM ET Feb 04 $1,619 −$526 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 04 $40 +$101 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 03 $548 +$77 +14%
Ostrava Open: Caty McNally vs Tereza Martincova Feb 03 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 03 $287 +$78 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 02 $422 +$49 +12%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 02 $652 +$127 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 02 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 02 $300 +$13 +4%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Feb 02 $383 −$83 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3PM ET Feb 02 $306 +$70 +23%
Ostrava Open: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Mona Barthel Feb 02 $200 +$106 +53%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 02 $100 +$95 +95%
Transylvania Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Sorana Cirstea Feb 02 $1,703 +$308 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5PM ET Feb 01 $1,346 +$393 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 01 $987 +$323 +33%
Transylvania Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Feb 01 $1,111 −$124 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 01 $928 +$184 +20%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Morocco 40¢ $79 1h
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 41¢ $84 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3h
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $55 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $150 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $150 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $113 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $35 120d
ODi Series South Africa vs Pakistan, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 100¢ $35 120d
ODi Series South Africa vs Pakistan, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 80¢ $28 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $63 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $91 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.91 · official $78.92 (match) · 462 history records