Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f4…cddb sports 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,616 (-10%) realized −$9,594 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%67W / 48L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$1,280est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$669
7 days−$345
14 days+$325
30 days−$10,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,697
other 1% −$346
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +95.0% +76.4% 58% 55% -8.1%
≤30d 115 +32.8% +20.1% 58% 57% -19.0%
≤90d 115 +32.8% +20.1% 58% 57% -19.0%
all 115 +32.8% +20.1% 58% 57% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.1% 57% -19.0%
10% +8.6% 55% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -1.9% 40% -33.8%
20% -11.5% 31% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$790) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$401 vs −$771 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,028
Realized−$9,594
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses67 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,280
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage27d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 67¢ 59¢ $564 $497 −$67 (-12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $184 $170 −$14 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 36¢ 50¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A 6666 74¢ 80¢ $111 $120 +$9 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A ASTRAL 72¢ 81¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+12%)
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A Esport BERG 73¢ 80¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $222 +$72 +32%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $175 +$38 +22%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $335 −$334 -100%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) Jun 27 $191 −$189 -99%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $168 +$50 +30%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $1,016 +$647 +64%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $204 +$102 +50%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $291 +$20 +7%
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $580 −$574 -99%
Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs Millennium Esports (+1.5) Jun 26 $177 +$193 +109%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $188 −$63 -34%
Map Handicap: TL.A (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) Jun 25 $316 +$196 +62%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $552 +$511 +92%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $349 −$232 -66%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $287 −$283 -99%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $901 −$199 -22%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $115 +$105 +91%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 23 $494 +$135 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$46 +23%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $478 −$134 -28%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $474 −$470 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $240 +$198 +83%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $285 −$282 -99%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $235 +$140 +60%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $335 −$333 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 23 $194 −$109 -56%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 23 $172 +$164 +95%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $290 +$209 +72%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $132 +$99 +75%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $480 +$150 +31%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $513 +$244 +48%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $389 −$345 -89%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $438 −$433 -99%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite Jun 21 $184 −$117 -64%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 21 $265 −$55 -21%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $186 +$78 +42%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $179 +$147 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $198 +$257 +130%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $271 +$101 +37%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $64 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $391 −$85 -22%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $251 +$199 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $284 +$167 +59%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $438 +$378 +86%
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) Jun 19 $397 +$187 +47%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $227 −$225 -99%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $262 +$104 +40%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$26 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 75¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group BUY ASTRAL 72¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 74¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 74¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 BUY Esport BERG 73¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 70¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 84¢ $47 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 87¢ $28 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 86¢ $23 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 86¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 86¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 86¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 86¢ $157 4h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 76¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 76¢ $56 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $16 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 75¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 86¢ $117 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 74¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 74¢ $55 6h
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) BUY NEW VISION 56¢ $82 6h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge SELL OlyBet SB 49¢ $172 6h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 43¢ $156 9h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 27¢ $0 17h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 27¢ $14 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,028.02 · official $1,027.68 (match) · 1041 history records