Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f5…c0da other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$667 (-30%) realized −$683 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$659
14 days−$659
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$546
world 24% −$128
crypto 4% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -36.4% -42.4% 20% 20% -47.8%
≤30d 10 -36.4% -42.4% 20% 20% -47.8%
≤90d 23 -63.3% -66.8% 13% 13% -50.3%
all 23 -63.3% -66.8% 13% 13% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.8% 13% -50.3%
10% -69.9% 9% -55.1%
15% -72.8% 9% -59.4%
20% -75.5% 4% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$49 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage32d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $339 −$332 -98%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $543 −$128 -24%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $841 −$398 -47%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 28 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 28 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 28 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $80 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $339 2d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $390 2d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $441 2d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $443 3d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $432 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.30 · official $195.30 (match) · 62 history records