Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2fc…20bb weather 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate88%312W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$59
14 days+$55
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$34
weather 35% −$50
other 13% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -2.1% -11.4% 74% 63% -7.6%
≤30d 320 -1.7% -11.0% 88% 23% -9.4%
≤90d 355 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 23% -9.7%
all 355 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 23% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 23% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 14% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 8% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses312 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$24 +47%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$19 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$31 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$24 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$29 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$9 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET Jun 28 $146 +$27 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $163 −$163 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $155 +$99 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Jun 28 $173 −$173 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Jun 28 $106 +$14 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET Jun 28 $165 +$46 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $161 +$34 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $154 +$87 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$18 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $144 +$84 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $136 +$66 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $129 +$76 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $146 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $163 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $155 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $173 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $106 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $165 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $161 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $154 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $102 26h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $144 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $136 32h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $129 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.08 · official $74.08 (match) · 718 history records