Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd302…3c8f sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,962 (+32%) realized +$10,962 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,299per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$636est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days−$213
14 days−$213
30 days−$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$8,727
crypto 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.4% -47.0% 50% 50% -25.1%
≤30d 11 -49.8% -54.6% 27% 27% -19.5%
≤90d 26 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +14.0%
all 26 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% +14.0%
10% -13.5% 42% +3.1%
15% -21.9% 35% -6.9%
20% -29.5% 31% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,899) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,270 vs −$637 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$636
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,299
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $870 +$149 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $366 −$362 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $674 −$665 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,016 +$921 +91%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $813 −$380 -47%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $957 +$874 +91%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $52 −$51 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $59 −$57 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $361 −$352 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $227 −$223 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $2,254 +$4,944 +219%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $4,992 +$2,072 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $4,202 +$1,427 +34%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $514 −$503 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $3,485 −$3,450 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $3,012 +$443 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 30 $522 −$500 -96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $3,214 −$1,200 -37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $1,899 +$2,494 +131%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $500 +$165 +33%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $1,976 +$1,631 +82%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 03 $805 +$656 +81%
Bucharest Open: Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 03 $160 +$645 +402%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $205 −$43 -21%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche Apr 03 $117 +$90 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 44¢ $428 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 81¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 81¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 81¢ $81 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 81¢ $155 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul SELL CYBERSHOKE Prospects 81¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 51¢ $67 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 51¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 50¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 52¢ $93 3h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 48¢ $508 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $366 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 52¢ $674 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY TYLOO 24¢ $511 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $1,797 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $20 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $20 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $81 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $20 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $508 17d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $508 17d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 26¢ $433 17d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 47¢ $813 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $509 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $12 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $90 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $450 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $184 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 90¢ $587 17d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 46¢ $957 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records