Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd302…8cbf weather 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-0%) realized +$330 · open −$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%39W / 219L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$14,120
other 6% −$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -74.0% -76.5% 3% 3% -81.5%
≤30d 189 -5.9% -14.8% 11% 6% -62.3%
≤90d 258 +54.5% +39.8% 15% 9% -63.4%
all 258 +54.5% +39.8% 15% 9% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.8% 9% -63.4%
10% ← realistic here +26.4% 9% -66.9%
15% +14.2% 9% -70.1%
20% +3.0% 9% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +209% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$140 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,339
Realized+$330
Unrealized−$492
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses39 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)258 / 111
History coverage51d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 49¢ $124 $669 +$545 (+439%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $124 $512 +$388 (+313%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $124 $23 −$102 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $98 $5 −$93 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $124 $1 −$123 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $124 $1 −$123 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$63 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$47 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$47 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$47 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 28? Jun 16 $9 −$25 -290%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 18? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 27? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on May 29? Jun 16 $88 −$104 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on May 31? Jun 16 $107 −$109 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 29? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $71 −$126 -179%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 −$115 -101%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 29? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 21? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 9? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 16 $64 −$127 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 29? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 17? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 31? Jun 16 $72 −$108 -150%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C or below on May 11? Jun 16 $8 −$14 -167%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 9? Jun 16 $2 −$27 -1628%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 31? Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 28? Jun 16 $15 −$25 -163%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on May 18? Jun 16 $16 −$17 -104%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 23? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 24? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 24? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 24? Jun 16 $18 −$46 -264%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 17? Jun 16 $1 −$16 -1810%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 23? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 16? Jun 16 $1 −$17 -1301%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 31? Jun 16 $19 −$41 -212%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 28? Jun 16 $3 −$24 -887%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29? Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on May 9? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 22? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $118 −$169 -144%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 14? Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27? Jun 16 $8 −$11 -148%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 22? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 31? Jun 16 $36 −$40 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $127 −$127 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $708 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,009 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,339.27 · official $1,344.05 (match) · 1576 history records