Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd304…fbb8 crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$469 (+18%) realized +$474 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%66W / 66L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$61
14 days−$6
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$212
world 7% +$180
politics 3% +$9
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.6% +3.7% 59% 59% +16.7%
≤30d 132 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 39% +5.5%
≤90d 132 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 39% +5.5%
all 132 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 39% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 39% +5.5%
10% -13.9% 30% -4.6%
15% -22.2% 25% -13.8%
20% -29.8% 19% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses66 / 66
Open positions5
Markets (closed)132 / 137
History coverage29d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Yes 61¢ 44¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+103%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$11 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $19 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $31 +$53 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$14 +91%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +151%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$16 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$46 +293%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$15 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$23 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $37 −$34 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $32 −$28 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $48 −$45 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $14 +$29 +205%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $27 −$20 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 +$239 +751%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $43 −$30 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$77 +291%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $16 +$269 +1684%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$47 +440%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $60 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 78¢ $32 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL No 1¢ $2 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 42¢ $66 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 14¢ $19 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 34¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 54¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 26¢ $16 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 86¢ $25 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 64¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.49 · official $100.49 (match) · 267 history records