Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd306…463d sports 1244 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,952 (-1%) realized −$2,565 · open −$387
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%915W / 555L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day96.5pace
Fees−$1,229est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$9,162
other 25% +$1,615
world 2% +$1,127
crypto 1% −$568
politics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 663 -41.4% -47.0% 48% 27% -48.6%
≤30d 1470 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 38% -19.4%
≤90d 1470 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 38% -19.4%
all 1470 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 38% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 38% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 21% -27.1%
15% -41.5% 12% -34.1%
20% -47.2% 6% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$125 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized−$2,565
Unrealized−$387
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses915 / 555
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,229
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1470 / 1244
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day96.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $305 $359 +$54 (+18%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 98¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 100¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 92¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 95¢ $35 $59 +$24 (+69%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 88¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Portugal 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots Yes 94¢ 84¢ $39 $34 −$5 (-12%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? No 92¢ 100¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) England 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Under 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 84¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Medvedev 59¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5 Under 60¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 62¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 80¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 473 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $476 −$476 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Medvedev Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Magic (-1.5) Jun 17 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $409 −$409 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $19 46m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Portugal 71¢ $3 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Portugal 71¢ $3 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 48m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 49m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY Yes 95¢ $29 49m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $10 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $50 1h
Atmane vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 3h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Medvedev 59¢ $4 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $255 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $117 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $35 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $146 4h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $49 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 96¢ $50 6h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $430 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $10 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $101 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $10 6h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.56 · official $1,007.57 (match) · 3500 history records