Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd30c…614c sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$755 (-10%) realized −$747 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days−$222
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$158
crypto 12% −$862
other 9% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 42% -19.1%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 45% -3.4%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 45% -3.4%
all 57 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 44% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -20.4%
10% -22.0% 44% -28.0%
15% -29.6% 40% -35.0%
20% -36.5% 35% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$95 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized−$747
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage214d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) Ghana 62¢ 62¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $388 $385 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$46 +226%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$120 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $309 −$306 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$194 +542%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$182 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $648 −$627 -97%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 09 $326 −$285 -88%
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals Dec 08 $50 −$21 -42%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 07 $100 $0 -0%
Seahawks vs. Falcons Dec 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) Dec 07 $50 +$48 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5) Dec 07 $75 −$12 -16%
Spread: Buccaneers (-8.5) Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Wings vs. Kraken Dec 07 $50 +$46 +92%
Kings vs. Heat Dec 07 $36 +$14 +39%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 07 $50 +$44 +88%
Ohio State vs. Indiana Dec 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Wild vs. Canucks Dec 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-4.5) Dec 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Dec 06 $209 +$137 +65%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-13.5) Dec 06 $47 −$25 -53%
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Dec 06 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $70 −$19 -28%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $25 +$18 +72%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $25 +$25 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $393 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 62¢ $405 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $203 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $101 14h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 23h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $101 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $309 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $51 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $51 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $31 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $48 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $0 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.09 · official $980.09 (match) · 124 history records