Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd30d…4f6d crypto 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1678 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,013 (+8%) realized +$1,023 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%210W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1678.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1678 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 36% -11.8%
≤30d 504 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 504 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 36% -11.8%
all 504 -14.2% -22.4% 42% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1678.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 36% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 31% -20.3%
15% -36.6% 25% -28.0%
20% -42.8% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses210 / 294
Open positions2
Markets (closed)504 / 506
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1678.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 47¢ 52¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 52¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$20 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$10 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$11 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$33 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$21 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$10 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$3 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$22 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$30 +151%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$13 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$44 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$10 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$12 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.24 · official $20.26 · 3500 history records