Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd311…8145 crypto 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$96 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%297W / 22L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$24
14 days−$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$107
other 1% −$1
weather 0% −$29
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -9.5% -18.2% 67% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 156 -3.7% -12.9% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 319 -1.8% -11.1% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 319 -1.8% -11.1% 93% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses297 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 321
History coverage70d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $694 $692 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? Jun 18 $205 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? Jun 17 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $747 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $956 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $44 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 18? Jun 15 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $309 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $44 −$6 -13%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 16? Jun 15 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 16? Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $148 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $38 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 16? Jun 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $372 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 16? Jun 14 $276 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 16? Jun 14 $287 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 −$7 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 14 $206 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 15? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $408 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 −$5 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 13 $647 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 14? Jun 13 $241 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,100 on June 13? Jun 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 12 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 11 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? Jun 11 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $579 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $579 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $300 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $178 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $212 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $137 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $93 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 36h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $220 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 39h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 9¢ $1 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $283 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.55 · official $701.55 (match) · 1351 history records