Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd313…2888 crypto 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-5%) realized −$63 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%102W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 52% −$32
crypto 39% −$28
other 5% −$7
world 3% −$9
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.7% -2.5% 100% 25% -3.4%
≤30d 57 -10.4% -19.0% 54% 11% -14.5%
≤90d 198 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 28% -15.7%
all 198 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 28% -15.7%
10% -28.3% 21% -23.7%
15% -35.2% 17% -31.1%
20% -41.6% 11% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses102 / 96
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage49d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? No 84¢ 94¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +3%
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? Jun 08 $36 −$9 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $31 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $24 +$1 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 29 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $61 −$35 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 27 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma May 27 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $9 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 23 $82 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $32 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $31 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $28 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 55¢ $6 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 50¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 93¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 94¢ $19 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 71¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 71¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 72¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 81¢ $11 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 80¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $29 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? SELL No 87¢ $18 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? SELL No 87¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? SELL No 87¢ $9 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 83¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $14 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $35.93 (match) · 584 history records