Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:18:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd313…2ad0 crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate70%169W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$24
14 days+$11
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$4
other 7% +$6
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 14% -6.0%
≤30d 155 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 239 -0.5% -9.9% 70% 1% -9.6%
all 241 +0.5% -9.0% 70% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses169 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 243
History coverage168d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 21, 3PM ET? Jun 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 2AM ET? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 20, 1AM ET? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$2 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 6AM ET? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 4AM ET? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3AM ET? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 1AM ET? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5AM ET? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 13, 11AM ET? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 13, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 13, 3AM ET? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 11, 11AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 11, 10AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 11, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 11, 8AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 11, 7AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 11, 6AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 11, 5AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 4AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 3AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 11, 2AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 11, 1AM ET? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 10, 1PM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 10, 11AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 59,800 on June 10, 10AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 9AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 8AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,600 on June 10, 7AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 10, 6AM ET? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BUY 100¢ $61 30m
BUY 100¢ $61 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $58 9h
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 21, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $56 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $48 47h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 20, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 20, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $43 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 2AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 6AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 15, 1AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 13, 3PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 8d
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 13, 11AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 8d
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 13, 4AM ET? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 13, 4AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 13, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 793 history records