Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd317…025a
other · 330 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17,917 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15,382 · open −$2,551
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,456
Realized−$15,382
Unrealized−$2,551
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses95 / 392
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)487 / 330
History coverage123d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 3 History 487 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,203
7 days−$21,737
14 days−$21,037
30 days−$19,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 48¢ $4,899 $2,400 −$2,499 (-51%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 80¢ 48¢ $58 $35 −$23 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $2,218 $0 −$2,218 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $302 $0 −$302 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 11AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $2,218 −$2,297 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Jun 12 $25 −$69 -269%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 9? Jun 12 $61 −$68 -111%
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 17? Jun 12 $11 −$20 -180%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 12 $0 +$4 +5682%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $1,630 −$2,362 -145%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Jun 12 $134 −$139 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Jun 12 $330 −$384 -117%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 4PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026? Jun 12 $415 −$797 -192%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$145 -206546%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jun 12 $243 −$243 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on December 19? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$40 -119%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $268 −$268 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Jun 12 $278 −$310 -111%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 2PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jun 12 $151 −$156 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jun 12 $1,093 −$1,092 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 12 $469 −$469 -100%
Starostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election? Jun 12 $7 −$9 -121%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 12 $72 −$75 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? Jun 12 $218 −$218 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% +$5,039
crypto 2% +$82
world 0% +$2
sports 0% +$5
politics 0% +$42
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $554 0m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,376 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $206 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 3m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $297 3m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 3m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $696 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $134 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $113 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 4m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $58 5m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 6m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $38 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $84 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $68 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 +11.7% +1.1% 11% 9% -42.9%
≤30d 217 +47.6% +33.5% 18% 12% -26.2%
≤90d 401 +90.4% +72.3% 19% 14% -20.0%
all 487 +85.7% +68.0% 20% 14% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +68.0% 14% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here +52.0% 13% -25.7%
15% +37.3% 12% -32.8%
20% +23.8% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,456.15 · official $2,456.15 (match) · 3500 history records