Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd31a…94a9 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$5
other 12% +$2
culture 6% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 4% −$10
tech 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +125.0% +103.5% 31% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 17 +117.6% +96.9% 29% 6% -8.9%
all 39 +48.1% +34.0% 46% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 3% -10.1%
10% +21.2% 3% -18.7%
15% +9.5% 3% -26.5%
20% -1.2% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage445d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $25 +$6 +23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $69 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -30%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $10 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 05 $4 −$1 -16%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 29 $4 $0 +8%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 29 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 29h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $41 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $7 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $34 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $41 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $4 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $28 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $34 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records