Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd31a…5f51 crypto 1884 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (247 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$385 (+7%) realized +$388 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%817W / 536L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day247.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$708
7 days−$53
14 days+$418
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$1,264
weather 19% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (247 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1006 +5.0% -5.0% 55% 38% -11.1%
≤30d 1353 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 43% -1.4%
≤90d 1353 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 43% -1.4%
all 1353 +19.7% +8.3% 60% 43% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 43% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 38% -10.9%
15% -11.6% 36% -19.5%
20% -20.2% 34% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses817 / 536
Open positions27
Markets (closed)1353 / 1884
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day247.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 1353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+283%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 56¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 467 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 3? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 26? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.16 · official $94.25 · 3500 history records