Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd31c…9af2 crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,450 (+5%) realized +$1,453 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate83%60W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$518
7 days+$558
14 days+$558
30 days+$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$804
tech 21% −$158
other 13% +$327
sports 9% +$465
finance 2% +$60
economics 2% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 38% +1.4%
≤30d 13 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 38% +1.4%
≤90d 30 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 43% +0.6%
all 72 +6.9% -3.2% 83% 35% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 35% -4.9%
10% -12.5% 21% -14.0%
15% -21.0% 12% -22.3%
20% -28.7% 8% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$111 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,453
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses60 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage260d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 26 $177 +$15 +9%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $163 −$9 -6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $124 −$7 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $1,300 +$163 +13%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $258 −$13 -5%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $253 −$96 -38%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $274 −$13 -5%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $432 +$5 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 26 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $131 +$17 +13%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $540 +$270 +50%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $344 +$196 +57%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $305 +$40 +13%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $180 +$53 +30%
Zagreb: Elmer Moeller vs Zsombor Piros May 17 $85 +$26 +31%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 11 $105 +$42 +40%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $271 +$14 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5 May 10 $138 −$137 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $123 +$106 +86%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners May 10 $227 +$59 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 07 $77 +$20 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 07 $177 +$9 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 07 $177 +$25 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 07 $222 +$6 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 07 $382 +$32 +8%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $51 +$42 +82%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $124 +$9 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March? Apr 03 $222 +$8 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 03 $286 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 03 $454 +$13 +3%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Slovakia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $77 +$30 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 04 $1,700 +$31 +2%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 08 $44 +$11 +25%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 08 $131 +$7 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 08 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? Feb 08 $500 +$22 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 08 $1,000 +$22 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 08 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 11 Jan 19 $88 +$14 +16%
Will no listed leader be out in 2025? Jan 04 $196 +$17 +9%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $300 +$18 +6%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jan 04 $122 +$288 +236%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Jan 04 $400 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $570 +$56 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $746 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 04 $2,500 +$104 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $192 14m
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $154 14m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $117 14m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No $2 14m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $244 14m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 44¢ $157 14m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 78¢ $261 14m
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $437 14m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 64¢ $292 14m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $1,461 14m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $274 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $124 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $258 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $303 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $540 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $344 2d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $4 11d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $20 19d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $65 19d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 19d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 19d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $4 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $65 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $15 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 190 history records