Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd31c…7424 other 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,577 (-11%) realized −$15,357 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%204W / 238L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$16
14 days+$241
30 days+$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$440
world 25% −$6,501
politics 15% −$1,730
crypto 9% −$7,254
economics 8% −$289
sports 3% +$76
culture 3% −$877
tech 0% +$165
finance 0% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -17.3% -25.2% 47% 46% -9.1%
≤30d 163 -9.4% -18.0% 52% 51% -0.6%
≤90d 205 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 53% -3.9%
all 442 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 41% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 41% -20.0%
10% -26.8% 36% -27.6%
15% -33.9% 31% -34.6%
20% -40.4% 25% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$134 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized−$15,357
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses204 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions16
Markets (closed)442 / 432
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$319
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 59¢ 48¢ $177 $144 −$33 (-19%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 55¢ 24¢ $330 $141 −$189 (-57%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 44¢ 84¢ $66 $126 +$60 (+91%)
Senegal leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 63¢ 32¢ $101 $52 −$49 (-48%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 63¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 57¢ 54¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 57¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 42¢ 42¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Grayscale be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kraken be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $82 +$43 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 +$23 +55%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $41 +$29 +70%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $41 +$44 +109%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$22 +55%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $39 +$21 +52%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $41 +$29 +70%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$39 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 +$32 +83%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $36 +$18 +50%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 +$44 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$38 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 +$34 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $42 +$23 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $39 4m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $36 5m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $39 5m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $38 19m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $41 19m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $42 19m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $40 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 1h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $7 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $12 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $39 1h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $40 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $11 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 22h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $23 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $41 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 64¢ $41 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $40 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $40 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.34 · official $967.65 (match) · 3500 history records