Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd31d…f8bf weather 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$253 (+17%) realized +$287 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%55W / 126L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day66.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$319
14 days+$297
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +37.7% +24.6% 31% 31% +14.4%
≤30d 181 +26.8% +14.7% 30% 30% +11.3%
≤90d 181 +26.8% +14.7% 30% 30% +11.3%
all 181 +26.8% +14.7% 30% 30% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 30% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here +3.7% 28% +0.7%
15% -6.3% 19% -9.0%
20% -15.5% 17% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$287
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses55 / 126
Open positions30
Markets (closed)181 / 211
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day66.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? No 52¢ 59¢ $26 $30 +$3 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? No 57¢ 56¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? No 53¢ 52¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23? No 74¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? No 73¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? No 53¢ 56¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? No 67¢ 63¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? No 52¢ 58¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? No 72¢ 74¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? No 53¢ 71¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 24? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 24? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 23? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$30 +155%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$96 +1986%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$41 +402%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $27 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $23 +$20 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$13 +1302%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $17 +$25 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$11 +957%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $11 +$54 +482%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +1010%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 +$8 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 53¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 72¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 53¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $35 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 57¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 57¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 57¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.92 · official $200.93 (match) · 572 history records