Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd31d…7ca4 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-5%) realized −$99 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%38W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$12
crypto 27% +$32
other 9% −$64
economics 3% −$4
world 3% −$18
politics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.3% +15.2% 67% 67% +40.7%
≤30d 3 +27.3% +15.2% 67% 67% +40.7%
≤90d 52 -43.9% -49.2% 23% 21% -16.9%
all 95 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 35% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 35% -14.9%
10% -32.1% 29% -23.0%
15% -38.7% 25% -30.5%
20% -44.7% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses38 / 57
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage343d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $47 $60 +$13 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 74¢ $21 $37 +$16 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 +$31 +68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $33 +$37 +114%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $62 −$26 -43%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $24 +$14 +60%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $26 +$18 +66%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $24 −$18 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $54 +$46 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Apr 20 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Phillies Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Apr 20 $47 −$4 -8%
NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 157.5 Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 23? Apr 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Apr 20 $10 −$5 -53%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-17.5) Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 1AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 20 $14 −$11 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 20 $12 −$5 -45%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $28 +$22 +79%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $25 +$25 +100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $22 −$16 -72%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Clo Apr 14 $40 +$40 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 04 $4 $0 -1%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 04 $2 $0 -15%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $2 +$3 +120%
NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Mar 31 $1 +$2 +103%
Spread: Heat (-8.5) Mar 30 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $1 −$1 -75%
1H Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Mar 29 $4 $0 +8%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $6 −$1 -17%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 138.5 Mar 29 $1 $0 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 54¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $40 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $69 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $33 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026 BUY $11 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Xtreme Gaming 55¢ $5 59d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Xtreme Gaming 55¢ $1 59d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 31¢ $31 59d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Xtreme Gaming 55¢ $16 59d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Virtus.pro 15¢ $3 60d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Virtus.pro 15¢ $13 60d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Virtus.pro 29¢ $32 60d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage SELL Virtus.pro 19¢ $19 60d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Virtus.pro 29¢ $1 60d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Virtus.pro 30¢ $28 60d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 60¢ $23 60d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 60¢ $3 60d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 13¢ $1 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 13¢ $0 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 13¢ $0 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 13¢ $5 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 13¢ $0 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 40¢ $10 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 61d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 55¢ $4 61d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $9 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.60 · official $107.38 · 269 history records