Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd31d…bd0c
other · 82 markets active 5h ago
1.0score
+$16 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage468d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 81 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$22
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $151 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $786 +$18 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $201 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $142 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $1,061 +$5 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $151 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $266 −$17 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $177 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $180 −$3 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $180 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $77 +$4 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $41 +$2 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $187 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,207 +$5 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $69 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $150 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $15 −$1 -7%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% +$22
other 27% +$9
finance 6% −$17
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
weather 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $149 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $149 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $86 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $149 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $109 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $71 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $80 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $166 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $166 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $62 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $89 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $149 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $89 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $60 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $85 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $65 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $125 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $125 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records